A Viable, Sustainable Human Future

The Ecotopian Solution – R. Crumb

    A viable, sustainable human future will, of necessity, be a world in which humans cooperate with natural biospheric processes, not work against them.

    A viable, sustainable human future will, of necessity, be a future in which humans do not consume natural resources faster than they are naturally replenished, and do not produce wastes faster than they can be naturally dispersed and assimilated.

    A viable, sustainable human future will have no more humans than can be sustained through natural biospheric processes. My guess is about 2 billion humans would be the optimum maximum global population level to allow recovery and continued viability of the biosphere.

    A viable, sustainable human future will have a reduced energy demand per capita, produced locally, and used at the site of production. Energy production will be by life-cycle renewable, passive sources. Heating and cooling of homes and businesses, where necessary, with be limited to local resources and locally manufactured and maintained technologies.

    A viable, sustainable human future will require far less human transportation. Humans will work where they live, live where they work. Local transportation will be on foot and by human powered vehicles. Regional transportation will be by solar charged electric vehicles and sail craft; long distance transportation, where necessary, will be by solar-charged electric vehicles and sail craft.

    A viable, sustainable human future will have a steady state economy, based on local production for local consumption, with limited trade for materials not available locally. Local population and economic growth will be limited by local resource availability. Local food production will require less energy, less irrigation and will be distributed locally through farmers markets and cooperatives.

After the fires, how do we choose to live?

We’re at the cusp of historic change in the Santa Cruz Mountains south of San Francisco and north of Santa Cruz. For over a century two historic trends have merged to create the CZU August Lightning fires, destroying many homes and properties.

For the past one hundred years, residents of the Bay Area and elsewhere have built summer homes in the Santa Cruz Mountains, there to enjoy cool temperatures and vast panoramic vistas. Over the years, many of those summer cabins have been upgraded to year round residences, most of them on narrow winding roads through the forest, subject to washouts, landslides, and fire.

Over the same period, fire suppression, largely to protect the increasing number of homes, has increased fuel loads in the forest, as small, patchy fires that have historically removed undergrowth and grasses have been curtailed and largely eliminated.

The August 15 thunderstorm set hundreds of small fires throughout the area, that caught hold in the abundant fuels accumulated over decades. They rapidly merged into the large fire area now being brought under control by 1600+ firefighters and their large and complex agency administrations.

We’ve come to this point over a century of thoughtless, unplanned growth and development, spreading fragile homes and businesses into wild areas without considering the natural processes at work in the non-human world. It’s a hard lesson to learn, and at this point a lesson not to be ignored.

Nevertheless, thoughts and plans are turning to “repopulation,” allowing home and business owners to return to assess the damage to their properties, including in many cases complete loss. Local government officials are already reassuring property owners that assistance for rebuilding will be readily available and the skids will be amply greased to ease the permitting process.

This is the point where a pause and a good rethink would be in order, before the rush to return to the status quo. Is it smart government policy to encourage property owners to rebuild their destroyed buildings in areas that will remain fire prone and would require extensive clearing, road building and fire protection into the future?

Isn’t this a good opportunity to reassess the effects of historic human population growth and infrastructure development in wild lands?

Isn’t now the perfect time to look to the future and consider the human world that we have built and the effects the way we live have on the natural world that surrounds us and on which we ultimately depend?

Wouldn’t it be better, for all life, for humans to live cooperatively, humbly and respectfully with natural processes, such as drought, precipitation, temperature… and fire, that govern the non-human world, and increasingly, as we have recently learned, the human world as well?

A thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise.” ― Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac

The Fire This Time

CZU Lightning Complex Fire

Here at Bwthyn Lleuad y Bae, we’re ten miles from the nearest flames, the Shingle fire at the southeast corner of the CZU Lightning Complex Fire.

This fire area started last weekend with a rollicking thunderstorm that rolled through the forest a week ago, starting multiple fires that have coalesced into the monster fire zone depicted above. It’s not all burning at the moment of course, mostly around the edges indicated by the dark red dots.

Firefighters have been able to slow the advance of the fire considerably over the past couple of days, due to light winds blowing in the right direction, lower temperatures and higher humidity. That situation may change tonight, or it may not, with a storm front coming through the area, which may, or may not, bring more lighting strikes in the forest, or what’s left of it, this evening.

County government officials are already starting to reassure homeowners whose homes have burned down that permitting regulations will be eased to allow them to rebuild their homes in place.

This seems unwise to me. If anything, permitting to build human habitations within forests that have evolved with fire and depend on fire for their ecosystem health should be more stringent and not less. People should be discouraged from building their homes and business in areas prone to fire, flood, earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes and hurricanes.

Yet, as we see every year, the economic costs of “natural disasters” increase, as more and more people choose to live in these areas unsuited to fragile human development.

Just as we wisely limit development in floodplains, in some communities, we should also designate fire zones, earthquake zones, volcanic zones, hurricane and tornado alleys as areas not suitable for human habitation.

I learned this 50 years ago in introductory Earth Science classes at a small teacher’s college in western Nebraska. It’s not rocket psychiatry, just simple common sense.

But then, common sense is a rare commodity in the human species, especially in these days of electronic distancing from the natural world, widespread ignorance of the science of ecology, and general digital distraction from the world as it is.

Perhaps the coalescence of virus pandemic, historic forest fires, and an incomprehensibly idiotic buffoon running for re-election as President of these United States will bring humans in this most profligate of nations to pause and reconsider this poorly considered path into an uncertain future.

We’ll survive the fire this time, and the pandemic and even Donald Trump. But what about the next time, and the next and the next? Why do we insist on living in a way that is incompatible with the natural world?

There is a way to live in harmony and balance with the natural world, such that we are not constantly under threat of disease, war and local calamity. Someday we’ll get there, either by choice or by ecological default.

Things that can’t go on forever, don’t.

Covid and fires and smoke, Oh My!

As if things aren’t strange enough in Covid World these days, now we have evacuations from forest fires in the mountains to the north.

We’re not threatened with fire or evacuation here, but we are getting smoke and ash fall now and then, not enough to curtail our daily walks, but noticeable.

The fires are from a late night thunderstorm that rattled in from the ocean and stabbed the forests with thousands of lightning bolts, starting dozens of fires fed by dense undergrowth resulting from decades of fire suppression.

If it were only the forests that burned, it would be normal for this part of the world. But, of course, humans have built their homes, businesses and towns within or adjacent to the forest and thus subject to to the fires that keep the forest healthy.

I suspect, or maybe it’s just hope, that some time from now this weird year will result in changes in the way local humans spread themselves about the landscape and interact with the natural world. Maybe we’ll learn that we can’t live in high density tower blocks, packed cheek by jowl in downtown canyons of glass and concrete. Perhaps we are learning that it’s not a good idea to build flammable homes in the flammable forests.

It would be good if we humans could learn from these hard lessons of disease and fire about how to live in the natural world, without destroying it or being destroyed by it.

Stranger things have happened!

Coronavirus is the voice of the Earth

This article by Satish Kumar on the Schumacher College website is so well written, I can do no better than quote from it. Emphasis is my own.

Human desire to conquer nature comes from the belief that humans are separate from nature and have superior powers. This dualistic thinking is at the root of our inability to deal with many of the natural upheavals, such as forest fires, floods and, in particular, climate change, global heating and pandemics like Covid-19.  We seem to believe that one way or the other we will find technological solutions to subjugate nature and make her subservient of human dominance.

“Rather than looking at the root causes of Coronavirus, the government’s, industrialists and scientists are looking for vaccines to suppress the symptoms. Vaccines may be a temporary solution, but we need to think and act more intelligently and more wisely. Rather than treating the symptoms we need to address the causes of this crisis.

“If we were to address the causes of Coronavirus, rather than simply the symptoms, we will need to return to ecologically regenerative agriculture; to human-scale, local, low carbon and organic methods of farming.

In order to address the causes of the Covid crisis we will need to learn to live in harmony with nature and within the laws of nature. Humans are as much a part of nature as any other form of life. Therefore, living in harmony with nature is the urgent imperative of our time and the very first lesson we, humans, collectively, need to learn from the crisis of Coronavirus. 

“Through the Coronavirus crisis nature is trying to send a strong message. It is a wake-up call, a call to remind us that we cannot go on producing pollution and waste for ever thinking that there are no consequences of our activities.

“The modern human civilisation has inflicted untold suffering and damage on nature. Now we are harvesting the consequences. We must accept the consequences of our actions and change. We must move on to build a new paradigm. If we wish to restore health to people then we have to restore health to our precious planet Earth. Healing people and healing nature is one and the same thing. So, we need to do everything for healing the Earth. only the positive actions will bring positive outcomes.”

We Live in the Natural World

two-paths

Gary Patton, a local lawyer, teacher, proponent of local limits to growth and past County Supervisor, publishes a blog called “We Live in a Political World,” which once was called  “We Live in Two Worlds.” His underlying theme is that humans live in the human created world, which is separate from the Natural World, even though humans depend on the Natural World for our survival.

My understanding is that we don’t live in two worlds, that there is only one world, the Natural World, in which humans are not only dependent, but are intricately intertwined.

Yes, humans do build an artificial world, both materially and culturally, that humans attempt to manage as if it were separate from the Natural World. But that material world is subject to all of the natural processes and principles of the Natural World, such as gravity, entropy, thermodynamics, geomorphology, plate tectonics, Cartesian and quantum physics, cycles of weather and climate, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, evolution, population dynamics and disease.

This cultural separation of the two worlds has resulted in management of the human world on the basis of two underlying assumptions: the myth of control and the myth of unlimited growth.

At the University of Wyoming the Engineering building has the following inscription carved into its facade: “The control of Nature is not given, it is won.” I’ve written about this several times on Searching for Balance, for example, HERE, HERE,and HERE.

Recent events have brought the myth of control into sharp focus, as the Covid-19 pandemic has questioned the assumption that centralized control of the world we live in is possible or even desirable.

It seems that the harder we try to control the spread of of the coronavirus around the world, the faster it spreads and the more humans are affected by it. Government responses to the virus have caused more havoc in the lives of people around the world than the virus itself. One wonders if this pandemic had been treated as we treat yearly influenza pandemics, the disruptions to the human world would have been less severe. Humans have evolved with viruses, even to the point of incorporating viral RNA into our body cells, to the point that we are viruses almost as much as the viruses themselves. Perhaps accommodation to the reality of inevitable virus outbreaks would be a more effective and less costly alternative.

One of the contributing factors to the current pandemic is the increasing incursion of humans and their built environments into the natural world where we have come into close contact with new viruses and other diseases that have been present in non-human species unnoticed by humans, who, as a result, have no natural immunity. The myth of unlimited growth is basic to the dominant human culture, such that it is unacceptable for government officials to even consider limits to population or economic growth. Lack of constant economic growth is seen as failure, and reductions in population threaten government funding based on increasing individual consumption and increasing taxes on economic activities.

Observant humans might put 2 and 2 together and come to the conclusion that there is a better way to organize and maintain human societies. Rather than viewing humans as separate from the Natural World and natural processes, why not view humans as part of the world’s natural ecosystems, in which the human built world functions as a critical component of ecosystems that include animals, plants, mountains, plains, watersheds, rivers and streams, oceans and one continuous atmosphere that supports all life on this planet.

Why not recognize that All Lives Matter, human and not human. Why not recognize that cutting down a tree troubles the forest and all that therein lives. Why not recognize that humans are connected with every other living thing through ancient evolutionary processes through which we share the ultimate fate of all life.

Why not recognize that human health and well-being is intimately interconnected with the health and well-being of all life on this the only home for every living thing in the known Universe.

This could be the basis for an ecological human society, in which all other species have a voice in the affairs of the one species that impacts them all.

Cynthia Mathews’ art of the backdoor deal

In a follow-up on yesterday’s post on the Santa Cruz Downtown Library fiasco, take a read of Stephen Kessler’s  amazing editorial in today’s Santa Cruz Sentinel, calling out ex-mayor and persistent politico Cynthia Mathews on her behind the scenes machinations to drum up support for the faltering library-in-a-parking-and-affordable-housing project:

Cynthia Mathews’ art of the backdoor deal

“Mathews owes the community an apology for her sleazy backroom behavior and should immediately resign her seat on the city council.”

Santa Cruz Sentinel
June 17, 2020

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2020/06/17/stephen-kessler-councilwoman-makes-unethical-request/

By Stephen Kessler

As you know if you’ve been following the epic saga of the Taj Garage—the proposed mixed-use parking-library (and belatedly added “affordable housing”) complex on Lot 4 in downtown Santa Cruz—Councilwoman Cynthia Mathews, due to her conflict of interest as an owner of property adjacent to the site, is recused from voting on this item that will soon be before the council.

This hasn’t kept Mathews from launching, directing and sustaining an all-out lobbying campaign to build her project in the face of significant popular opposition. How she reconciles or rationalizes this ethical, if not legal, contradiction may be her personal business, but as the city’s most veteran and powerful elected official, pretty much anything and everything she does has public and political implications.

That’s why I’ve been watching with astonishment and dismay the gross corruption of the city’s decision-making process by her behind-the-scenes machinations. Awhile ago she founded a front organization called Downtown Forward which recruited an impressive assortment of “stakeholders” to publicly support the Taj Garage as the only way for the city to gain a “21st-century library,” which is the bait for public approval of an otherwise unsightly and unneeded garage.

As far as I know, Downtown Forward has done nothing but put up a very slick and expensive website since its unveiling at a “press conference” more than a year ago—a press conference at which no questions were taken and where Mathews, the group’s primary organizer, never took the microphone. She has been hard at work since then throwing her political weight around attempting to cajole a critical mass of local citizens and businesspeople to get with her program and vocally advocate for her mixed-use garage.

With the deadline approaching for the city council’s decision on this issue, the recused and conflicted councilwoman’s lobbying campaign has gone into overdrive as public opinion appears to be trending against her desired outcome. She recently sent an email to the executive director of the Downtown Association, a group of businesses distinct from the chamber of commerce, asking for what she calls in her subject line “A big favor.”

In her email, sent from her personal not her city council address, Mathews writes, “…we are facing an imminent decision point for the DT library/housing/parking project and we would really appreciate getting a letter from the DTA affirming its support… Justin [SC Mayor Justin Cummings] is the key.” Who exactly the plural “we” refers to is unclear. Is it the royal “we,” the council “we”—or should it have been more truthfully the singular Mathews “I”? The blatant if indirect attempt to manipulate the mayor’s vote is one of the creepiest things about this troubling message.

Regardless of where it was sent from, can anyone in this town think of Mathews as anything but its most shrewd and influential politician? Can any businessperson openly oppose her without wondering how it might affect future council decisions on other matters? If former council members Drew Glover and Chris Krohn could be recalled for openly offensive behavior, surely Mathews’ shameless and shadowy arm-twisting is a far more serious breach of public trust. The “favor” President Trump requested of the president of Ukraine was enough to get him impeached. No doubt Mathews would declare, as the president did, “no quid pro quo,” but appearances matter.

In her email to the DTA, Mathews goes on to offer talking points to its members for letters they should write to the council. Why she doesn’t just offer to compose the letters herself and have them sign under her words—a tactic she has been known to deploy in the past—you’ll have to ask her. But if this is not corruption, I don’t know what is. It may not be a smoking gun, but it’s a stinking pile of political excrement.

Mathews owes the community an apology for her sleazy backroom behavior and should immediately resign her seat on the city council.

Stephen Kessler’s column runs on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

On the Fate of Public Libraries and Democracy

Well, they did it!

The Downtown Library Council Subcommittee hauled off and voted unanimously to recommend that the City build a new library in the ground floor of a six story parking garage and abandon the library’s historic site in the Civic Center.

Oh, wait, you may not know what this is all about.

In 2016, Santa Cruz voted in Measure S, a county-wide property tax measure to raise funds to repair, restore and upgrade the County’s badly deteriorated library buildings after decades of deferred maintenance. Among the buildings in need of repair are the Downtown Branch, the flagship of the library system, sailing proudly in the Civic Center, next door to City Hall, the City Auditorium and other historic buildings.

STC-L-GIBSON-COL-0616-01

When Measure S was ballyhooed by the city fathers and mothers, they knew perfectly well that the funds garnered would be insufficient to complete all the work needed for all of the library branch buildings. But they pressed on regardless, not telling the people about this minor financial detail, sure in the knowledge that once approved, additional funds could be “leveraged” to complete the tasks at hand.

To overcome this fiscal failing, the City (mis)Manager dug into his bag of old ideas and pulled out… a parking garage! He suggested, without smirking, very much, that the city could save money and build a bigger Downtown Branch library in the ground floor of a five to six story parking garage, propping up the moribund parking project like a brick underneath the wobbly corner of a book case.

Parking garage 2

City staff fueled the spark of the idea by pouring gallons of library eye candy on the gullible public, images of huge, modernistic book boutiques in major cities around the world excruciatingly morphed into “multi use” structures, such as apartment buildings, multi-modal transportation emporia and shopping malls, with far more glass, glitz and glamor than books..

The Downtown Library Advisory Committee, formed in December 2016 to “help with the design of a new library,” swallowed it all, recommending that the City Council approve the new “21st Century” library in the ground floor of a yet to be designed parking garage.

As often happens, many people who pay attention took exception to this behind closed doors, bureaucratic bait and switch. A groundswell of opposition to the ugly car-centric edifice arose (see Public Libraries Parking Garages and the Future of Bad Taste), creating consternation in the ivy-covered halls of local government. Never to pause in the face of public disapproval of their favorite plans, City Staff rooted around in their bag of tricks and pulled out their favorite ploy: if the public doesn’t like what you offer, give them what they want.

With a wave of their bureaucratic magic wand, the library in a garage was magically transformed into a library plus affordable housing in a parking garage. Shazzam! Who could object to affordable housing?

City staff and some City Council members, including the member who was recused from voting on the project, who shall remain nameless (her initials are C.M.), quickly mobilized a cadre of downtown influencers to support the so-called mixed use project, releasing an epic flood of disinformation, misdirection and bald-faced lies about the project, how much it would cost, how tall it would be and how many, if any, truly affordable apartments would be included.

To cut to the chase, after nearly four years of political jiggery-pokery, and yet another City Council committee process, the decision, made so long ago, dusted off, repolished  and shiny with new empty promises, obfuscations and prevarication, will be reintroduced to the City Council as the pre-ordained recommendation of the Downtown Library Council Subcommittee to build a new Downtown Library under a six story parking garage. A people parking garage with cavernous ceilings and echoing hallways almost but not quite entirely devoid of books.

Caverness

Maybe.

It has not gone unnoticed by the aforementioned people who pay attention, as well as other thinking persons, that local democracy is suffering under the stultifying reaction to the Coronavirus epidemic. What once were face-to-face public meetings have degraded into awkward and limiting remote computer media encounters, with public commentary and questions relegated to faceless voices on scratchy and often unintelligible telephone connections. No longer can we mingle with our fellow citizens in the hallowed halls of government, exchange meaningful glances during the meeting, foment strategy before and after, look our public servants in the eye when they spout their meaningless rhetoric.

It is quite likely that COVID-19 hysteria will subside in the next couple of months, to the point that we can resume face-to-face public meetings, even if somewhat constrained by anti-social distancing.

What would be lost by postponing public hearings of critical public interest until we can meet again in public? Why the urgency to push through a controversial project such as the bastardization of the Downtown Branch Library when the public cannot effectively take part in the deliberations? Who gains from this abrogation of democratic responsibility, and who loses?

One thing almost everyone can do is to contact City Council members and express disappointment and dismay at the loss of our political franchise and our historic library building in the vital Civic Center.

If nothing else, send an email to citycouncil@cityofsantacruz.com and let them know that you want our democracy and our Downtown Library lest they make any more ill advised commitments to our political, economic and cultural future.

The ultimate fate of the Downtown Public Library building, and the state of local democracy, lies in the hands of the citizens of Santa Cruz, city and county.

It’s up to you.

Learning What Doesn’t Work

Years ago my father told me something I’ve never forgotten. He said, “The secret to happiness in life is to find out what doesn’t work for you, and don’t do that.

In recent months, we’ve learned a big lesson on what doesn’t work. Looking at statistics for the incidence of Covid-19 around the world, two conclusions leap out with crystal clarity:

  1. Viruses thrive in areas of high human population density
  2. Viruses are deadly in humans who have existing health problems

These are two things that obviously don’t work well for humans, so according to Dad’s aphorism, we shouldn’t do dense human populations and poor health.

So, why is it then, in our local community of Santa Cruz County (as well as most of the rest of the world), local government encourages increased population density, and our culture encourages poor public health?

Population Density

The County of Santa Cruz and the incorporated municipalities in our county: Santa Cruz, Capitola, Scotts Valley and Watsonville, all have Economic Development Departments (EDDs), Planning Departments (PDs) and Public Works Departments (PWs), all of which are busily engaged in increasing population densities in our county and communities.

we’re passionate about supporting a flourishing and expansive local economy. Santa Cruz City EDD

One of the greatest challenges of living in Santa Cruz County is the cost of housing, one of the highest in the nation. Because Santa Cruz is a desirable coastal destination, our economy is based on tourism, and our housing stock is largely dedicated to second homes, vacation rentals, B&Bs, hotels and motels. During the Covid-19 shelter in place, many of our homes stand empty, while many of our residents lack sufficient housing. There is no lack of housing in the county, but there is a lack of affordable homes for the people who live here.

Local government responds to this condition by falling back on the age-old economic principle of supply & demand, that is, build more housing to lower the per unit cost. But in a tourist destination, this principle doesn’t work. There are millions of people just over the hill who want a house here to either come to on vacations or to use as an investment to make more money so they can afford to vacation in exotic places.

Since Santa Cruz is largely built out, there is little undeveloped space available to build more single family housing, so the answer is always to build up. This, of course, greatly increases population density in developed areas, thus creating an ideal breeding ground for the transmission of viruses.

In the face of what we’ve learned about spreading viruses, after months of (ineptly named) “social distancing” and mask-wearing, do the people of Santa County really want to risk our health by creating even more high population density? What would it take to not do that?

Human Health

Global Covid-19 statistics clearly show that humans with existing health problems have compromised immune systems that make them more susceptible to the virus and its resultant disease. The majority of deaths of individuals tested positive for the virus have underlying unhealth conditions, such as cardio-pulmonary disease, obesity, and diabetes all of which add to the lethality of the virus-born disease. Whether or not death is caused by the virus, or by other causes exacerbated by the virus, underlying ill health has contributed to the Covid-19 death rate throughout the world.

It obviously doesn’t work to have a large percentage of the population at risk due to general ill health. So, what would it take to not do that?

Lessons to be Learned

As we begin to contemplate an end to the Covid-19 pandemic, and lifting of government edicts on how we live our lives, now would be a good time to pause, contemplate the lessons to be learned from the pandemic, and think about how we want to live from here on out.

  • Would it be wise to continue to increase local population density?
  • Would it be wise to encourage local population growth beyond what can be sustained with local resources (think, water)?
  • Would it be wise to return to “nonessential” business and activities?
  • Would it be wise to continue to live far away from where we work and drive personal automobiles there and back every day?
  • Would it be wise to continue to encourage unhealthy diets, sedentary live styles and frenetic daily activities that interfere with sleep.
  • Wouldn’t it be wiser to encourage eating good, nutritious locally grown food, more local exercise, less travel and more engagement in local, meaningful work that supports the community?

Wouldn’t it be wiser to learn what doesn’t work and don’t do that?

Bringing Environmental Activism Home

Recently, I’ve reviewed environmental policies and legislation promulgated by our local Santa Cruz County and its municipalities (Santa Cruz, Capitola, Scotts Valley and Watsonville). County government has a good General Plan and well crafted County Code, but the municipalities are woefully inadequate. But even in County government, those codified policies are rarely followed to the letter, or in most cases even unto intent.

A recently published petition: William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Thomas M Newsome, Phoebe Barnard, William R Moomaw, World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency, BioScience, , biz088, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz088) includes descriptions of immediate actions needed to reduce human impacts on the biosphere. While they are predicated on reducing greenhouse gases and climate change, they also apply to very real immediate human impacts on the non-human world.

In my next post, I’ll compare these actions with local existing county and municipal codes, and suggest new policies to bring our local government into alignment with these global concerns.

Energy
The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables and other cleaner sources of energy if safe for people and the environment. We should leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground and should carefully pursue effective negative emissions using technology such as carbon extraction from the source and capture from the air and especially by enhancing natural systems (see “Nature” section). Wealthier countries need to support poorer nations in transitioning away from fossil fuels. We must swiftly eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels and use effective and fair policies for steadily escalating carbon prices to restrain their use.

Short-lived pollutants
We need to promptly reduce the emissions of short-lived climate pollutants, including methane, black carbon (soot), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Doing this could slow climate feedback loops and potentially reduce the short-term warming trend by more than 50% over the next few decades while saving millions of lives and increasing crop yields due to reduced air pollution. The 2016 Kigali amendment to phase down HFCs is welcomed.

Energy
The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon renewables and other cleaner sources of energy if safe for people and the environment. We should leave remaining stocks of fossil fuels in the ground and should carefully pursue effective negative emissions using technology such as carbon extraction from the source and capture from the air and especially by enhancing natural systems (see “Nature” section). Wealthier countries need to support poorer nations in transitioning away from fossil fuels. We must swiftly eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels and use effective and fair policies for steadily escalating carbon prices to restrain their use.

Nature
We must protect and restore Earth’s ecosystems. Phytoplankton, coral reefs, forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands, peatlands, soils, mangroves, and sea grasses contribute greatly to sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Marine and terrestrial plants, animals, and microorganisms play significant roles in carbon and nutrient cycling and storage. We need to quickly curtail habitat and biodiversity loss, protecting the remaining primary and intact forests, especially those with high carbon stores and other forests with the capacity to rapidly sequester carbon (proforestation), while increasing reforestation and afforestation where appropriate at enormous scales. Although available land may be limiting in places, up to a third of emissions reductions needed by 2030 for the Paris agreement (less than 2°C) could be obtained with these natural climate solutions.

Food
Eating mostly plant-based foods while reducing the global consumption of animal products (figure 1c–d), especially ruminant livestock, can improve human health and significantly lower GHG emissions (including methane in the “Short-lived pollutants” step). Moreover, this will free up croplands for growing much-needed human plant food instead of livestock feed, while releasing some grazing land to support natural climate solutions (see “Nature” section). Cropping practices such as minimum tillage that increase soil carbon are vitally important. We need to drastically reduce the enormous amount of food waste around the world.

Economy
Excessive extraction of materials and overexploitation of ecosystems, driven by economic growth, must be quickly curtailed to maintain long-term sustainability of the biosphere. We need a carbon-free economy that explicitly addresses human dependence on the biosphere and policies that guide economic decisions accordingly. Our goals need to shift from GDP growth and the pursuit of affluence toward sustaining ecosystems and improving human well-being by prioritizing basic needs and reducing inequality.

Population
Still increasing by roughly 80 million people per year, or more than 200,000 per day, the world population must be stabilized—and, ideally, gradually reduced—within a framework that ensures social integrity. There are proven and effective policies that strengthen human rights while lowering fertility rates and lessening the impacts of population growth on GHG emissions and biodiversity loss. These policies make family planning services available to all people, remove barriers to their access and achieve full gender equity, including primary and secondary education as a global norm for all, especially girls and young women.